“The bird flu impact is going to be less. People know this is not going to disappear and they’ve learned to live with it. They have the information they need about the disease now. The fear factor has subsided,“
Barring Bird Flu In Brazil, Chicken Cos Eye Record Trade
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)-Recent reports of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus found in Japan and Hungary will unlikely stop Brazilian chicken exporters from shipping record volumes to world markets in 2007.
“The worst-case scenario at this point is if a bird flu case is discovered here in Brazil. Right now, bird flu is not a major problem for the sector because the reaction from consumers has changed,“ said Ricardo Goncalves, executive director of the Brazilian Chicken Exporters Association, or ABEF.
Last year, ABEF members, which include major publicly traded meat exporters like Sadia (SDA) and Perdigao (PDA), expected exports to decline by 7% because of bird flu outbreaks in the Middle East, Africa and Europe in early 2006. Exports did decline, but not as bad as exporters had imagined. Last year, Brazil shipped 2.7 million tons of chicken meat to world markets compared to 2.84 million tons in 2005. The latter was a record-breaking year for Brazil chicken exporters. Goncalves said Monday that 2007 will be slightly better than 2005, and currently is forecast to reach 2.85 million tons.
“The new cases in Asia won’t effect exports. We aren’t seeing that. There’s no word that people are consuming less chicken because of bird flu fears,“ he told a gathering of reporters at ABEF headquarters in Sao Paulo.
In mid-December, Goncalves said industry leaders suspected the worst was over when it comes to bird flu impacts on the chicken market. But 2007 started off with new cases in Japan, Hungary and Indonesia. Last year, companies like Sadia and other major exporters saw declines in export revenues and volumes because consumers stopped buying chicken.
“The bird flu impact is going to be less. People know this is not going to disappear and they’ve learned to live with it. They have the information they need about the disease now. The fear factor has subsided,“ Goncalves said.
Brazil is the world’s No. 1 chicken exporter.
Source: Kenneth Rapoza Dow Jones Newswires 55-11-3145-1488 kenneth.rapoza@dowjones.com |
