John, good post. It does seem like every end-of-the-quarter, some companies do preannounce bad numbers, and this seems to spook the entire tech. sector. I think the big boys (ML comes to mind) will use this paranoia to manipulate stock prices as well.
As for the companies that preannounced, i think, for the most part, the bad news is company specific (e.g. yield problems, dumping of low-end products, etc). The only negative I am hearing is coming from the ML camp. They indicated that there is inventory buildup in certain channels especially in Sept. I would guess this is true, but i don't think the impact on Intel's Q3 numbers is that severe. Maybe some OEMs are having a hard time moving their older stuff, especially vanilla Pentium and low-end MMX. Gateway comes to mind.
We know Japan is weak, but Europe seems to be stronger than Q2. Latin America seems strong, although Asia/Pacific Rim is a question mark relative to Q2. Corporate purchases seem to continue strong with NT servers/workstations doing well. Also, cpq/dell statements over the past month indicate healthy growth. I just don't see Intel missing, or missing by much.
Also, i do think the AMD announcement is significant. Seems like they are having are hard time making anything faster than 233 parts. If this is true, Intel may not have to cut their prices (as much) on their high-end PIIs until Feb. especially if demand is strong.
Summary: business as usual for Intel (making big money). I will be buying Intc here in the low 90s before earnings. My target of $125 by Jan. 98 still stands.
joey |
