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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: stockalot who wrote (28399)2/8/2007 10:49:55 PM
From: Honey_Bee  Read Replies (3) of 42834
 
Thank you Stockalot. Saturday a caller named Peter asked brinker a question about when he might use his "trigger finger" on the "cyclical bull" market.
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It's real iffy as to whether brinker actually answered Peter's question or not--I think mostly "not." He simply affirmed what Peter (and all of us) already knew, and that is that he hadn't done it yet.

Brinker has allowed himself some hefty cushions on both the downside and upside for market swings, so that he can claim his "timing" is correct. I spelled it all out at the Beehive and also posted a transcript of Peter's call and brinker's discussion of the secular/cyclical market trends.

He is now saying that the market has to go 10% above the S&P peak of 2000 before the secular bear ends. Of course, all he has to do now is wait another year and then if it does go over that, he will simply say that he told us that secular bear markets lasted from 8-20 years and he was right all along. :)

Among other things, Brinker said: "But what we do know is within secular trends there are no cases where a secular trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than, by more than 10%. It's never happened, so I think it's fair to say that until that happens, the secular trend is intact."

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