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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (78806)2/9/2007 2:35:58 PM
From: Mike Johnston  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Gold overshot in 1980 as J6Pack (again) bought in at the top.

Also, gold was held down, among others, by two one time factors that are not going to repeat:

First, a pc/internet revolution brought tremendous increases in productivity, allowing greenspan to create excess money, without triggering retail inflation.
Remember, that money supply tripled under Greenspan. That was more than was justified by the productivity leap. As a consequence , a stock bubble developed and to mop it up monetary excesses went into even higher gear, which gave us a bubble in real estate.

Secondly, the rise of Asia as a manufacturing center again masked very high monetary inflation, by reducing the price of goods at the retail level.

The productivity leap is already behind us.

Show me the next big thing, that is going to revolutionize life in the next few years on a scale similar to internet and also show me another country that is going to produce goods cheaper than China and i will get bearish on gold.

All the money creation now is going to go into prices of goods and real assets, even more so, when Asians decide not to accept Helicopter's confetti for their labor.

And the oceans of even more confetti are on the way. Never mind that whatever is already out there (FCB reserves)can trigger tremendous inflation.

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