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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (78845)2/11/2007 3:32:34 PM
From: pogohere  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Because if the market doesn't use it (out of your ass figures on inflation, unemployment, growth and manipulation), it's irrelevant.

Do I get belligerent? Absolutely. Does it affect the way people perceive me? Absolutely. Do I care? No, because the market will do what it will do and so long as I am comfortable in my logic and figures, I'll make money (as will my firm).

I think this is your best post yet. Like Keynes said, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. A lot of bears don't get this (they are "married to a view"). Those who do understand can make a great deal of money. I believe you when you say you have prospered.

The subtle fallacy in your position is the "so long as I am comfortable in my logic and figures" part. Your comfort is not dispositive. If the market perceives that the figures on inflation, unemployment, growth are unreliable, your comfort with your "logic and figures" won't matter. From your point of view it may be irrational for the market to turn its back on what it previously took to be prosperity and stability and the adroitness of Bernanke. Continued solvency then depends on abandoning your prior logic and figures. That's why you are my contrarian indicator. If you change your previously stated views I'll know there has been a sea change in perceptions and act accordingly.

Do you have the right stuff ?
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