I don't think the share price decline is due to manipulation, but neither is it quite random. I posted this earlier on another board:
Likely other news will come first but the odds are that as ounces grow the big buyers currently engaged in self-serving restraint will break ranks and pile in. I see little more needed to explain the present price decline than prior big buyers having gotten all they want at $30+, and holding bids for either lower prices or bigger news. Lower prices on lesser news is great--they'll just see how far it goes. Price will reverse very hard when people wanting big or bigger positions decide they need to act before others take the offers from them, or news gaps the stock up, not down.
I don't see us getting to $20 before buying pressure overwhelms selling pressure, but I often get the time/price relationship wrong, usually buying too soon. My guess: $24 bottom.
Big money got the price above $30 and big money, now more than ever, has to keep stepping up to maintain the price. Retail investors are going to be regularly selling for all the usual reasons and at these prices I expect they well outnumber retail buyers. So why shouldn't big money now just sit and watch, for a change, to see how low it will go? Key concept in this market as in others: price is set at the margin!!
Deep-pocketed and astute buyers know ARU is going to be taken out much higher unless gold tanks. That means there's no need for price support from big money buyers if they can tolerate a temporary price decline. If they've got freedom to buy big into a gold stock, presumably they can tolerate the swings. Miners and funds and brokers are likely playing chicken with one another over who will let the offers linger longer without showing meaningful buying volume, hoping to shake out offers ever lower. Then, news!! . . . and everyone grabs for the asks at once! |
