Joerg Schroeder's US stockmarket observation from today:
"Since the July '06 low, the SPX has run nearly 20%; this 7-mth. rally eclipses the 7-mth. blow-off episodes before the '00 top, the '87 top, and the '73 top.
It required 13 mths. to rally a similar 19-20% to the top in '72-'73; 9-10 mths. in '87; and 12-13 mths. in '00.
Additionally, it took 17-18 mths. for the 19-20% rise and blow off in 1891-93; 16 mths. in 1906-07; 9 mths. in 1919; only 2-3 mths. in 1929; 7 mths. in '36-'37; 17 mths. in '67-'68; 7-8 mths. in '90; and 6-7 mths. in '98.
Thus, we're duplicating, even surpassing, the periods immediately preceding the tops in '19, '37, '68, '73, '87, '90, '98, and '00.
Again, it is "different this time". We might well look back on this 7-mth. period, and the 3-4 years that preceded it, as the last best period for stocks for many years to come, perhaps a decade or more.
--JS-- |
