following are my COS fcf estimates based on their published sensitivities, relative to their baseline scenario of 1.25 fcf assuming 110 mmb volume, 0.88 CAD/USD, and $55 CL. currently CAD/USD is 0.86 and CL is around $59. the second line of figures shows the calculated sensitivity for each parameter. e.g., with CAD/USD at 0.86 instead of the baseline 0.88, per-share fcf is estimated to increase by 0.08; likewise, CL at current $59 instead of baseline $55 provides an incremental 0.28 estimated positive contribution to fcf. for 2008 i am guesstimating CL at $63.75 based on a ballpark average of the 2008 strip. all figures just wild-ass guesses, not a recommendation to buy or sell and provided on a strictly fwiw basis.
note that COS lists other sensitivities in their 2007 guidance document, such as operating cost decreases, but i have no way to estimate them and will have to rely on COS' reported numbers going forward.
in general, my belief is that if crude rises significantly, part of the incremental gain to FCF on the crude parameter will be lost to sensitivities on other parameters, such as a rising CAD/USD cross and a rising cost of NAECO natural gas.
2007 FCF Estimates
Volume CAD/USD CL Totals
110.00 0.86 59
0.00 0.08 0.28 0.36
Estimated fcf in CAD in USD
Yearly fcf 1.61 $1.38
Quarterly fcf 0.4025 $0.35
COS at 5% 32.2 $27.69
COS at 4% 40.25 $34.62
Current COS price 27.85 $23.95
FCF yield at current price 5.78%
Estimated per-share figures
1
Yearly $1.38
Quarterly $0.35
Monthly $0.12
2008 FCF Estimates
Volume CAD/USD CL Totals
129.00 0.86 63.75
0.57 0.08 0.6125 1.26
Estimated fcf in CAD in USD
Yearly fcf 2.51 $2.16
Quarterly fcf 0.628125 $0.54
COS at 5% 50.25 $43.22
COS at 4% 62.8125 $54.02
Current COS price 27.85 $23.95
FCF yield at current price 9.02%
Estimated per-share figures
1
Yearly $2.16
Quarterly $0.54
Monthly $0.18
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