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Non-Tech : ACCO: 800America.com, Inc

ACCO 3.465

-0.7%

1:11 PM EST

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To: stormrider1 who wrote (511)	2/19/2007 3:09:47 AM
From: LTK007	of 694

Hi Storm: Something to keep in mind , markets go up about 3-5% on average on the first cut, but a year later, on average are down something like 17% 12 month later(SPX). Remember as we fell from post the top 2000, the Fed commenced a relentless slashing. Did it help. No!--we just bounced and dived deeper , bounced and dived even deeper still and so on. It was relentless cutting with a relentless downtrend in market that lasted over 2 years. And we have a Wild card at play, a huge wild card That being EVERYBODY is ignoing a war with Iran. i repeat that we right now have virtually the identical scenario we had in 1914. Massive liquidity, very low volatility and ultra bullish extreme complacency along with an absolute refusal to confront that Europe was on the edge of exploding.Result , the financial world globally literally collapsed, i mean literally. The world markets were closed for many months. Bernanke cuts, and , we get a knee jerk bounce and then we go down. We have a the classic case of the super majority of investors believing a cut in rates fires the market upward. What have we learned these years. When the market gets an overwhelming confidence that cutting will be bullish The Reverse Happens. History says initial bounce and then down. i add link to my post about 1914 as if you haven't read it, i think it's worth a read. Message 23268527 Did you catch my Barbaro post?? Thought it was well said. Hope all is well. Max

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