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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARU.V Aurelian Resources Inc

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From: BritNick	2/21/2007 7:27:05 PM
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Well a big hello to all of those who are interested in this play, my name is BritNick and this is my first post to SI. Since I am forever on the hunt for new opinions I would like anyones experienced input on the present geopolitical situation in Ecuador. This is how I presently see it shaping up: 1.Correa was elected at the end of November 2006, since then all Ecuadorian mining stocks have taken a bit of a beating. 2.Correa won the battle in Congress to hold a referendum on Feb 14, 2007. 3.The referendum is set for April 15, 2007. The Country will vote on whether or not a Constitutional assembly should be set up. The Constitutional Assembly is a special legislative body where citizens join lawmakers to draft a new constitution.(Venezuela did the same thing in 1999 after Chavez was elected) This Assembly will have 180 days to get it done with a possible 30 day extension. The National Front for a Plurinational Constitution that was reported on yesterday is an organization that has been set up largely by socialists, indigenous peoples groups, and trade union groups. They are what I would call a special interest group that has already started lobbying for their 2 bits worth in the new Constitution which includes nationalization of natural resources (including mining). This whole process should take us into late fall 2007, there will be alot of activity before then which should give us a good idea on which way this Country is headed. Correa stated last week that foreign investment will be higher in 2007 than it was in 2006 so we know he is not about to fold our tent. He is a smart guy and if he can avoid "nationalization" type language or make it very clear that that is not an option before the constitutional work is commenced then the markets will relax somewhat and regain those losses. If special interest groups keep banging their drums in the other direction the uncertainty will stay with foreign investment until the constitutional work has been completed. I am not a paid basher, I am long on this stock, just not fully invested in it yet and I don't want to miss the boat. All IMHO of course. Cheers BritNick PS I like to post links to my inquiries/info so here is a couple of the more recent articles I have come a cross. TIA for your advice. indiancountry.com ipsnews.net

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