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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts

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To: MACD X who wrote (4232)	2/22/2007 11:54:23 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (3) of 6865

I have moved half my portfolio into cash, & the other half I am currently playing very speculative penny stocks... mostly GOLD & Silver but also some others which have become very liquid recently. Anecdotaly, when I did the same thing in other cycles (please ignore references to precious minerals & materials), that has suggested a top. My reasoning is thus: Hot money is chasing anything for high returns, while ignoring the inherent risks in such plays. Still very early in the trading day; so anything can happen, but as I look at theses charts intraday around 11:45 am. A couple of things: Note the very low level of the ADX. It is suggesting that oscilators are the way to enter/exit this chart. (Low ADX suggests trend is weak... so refer to oscilators. Such as RSI, Stochastics etc - both of them are suggesting the chart is close to over bought. On another note, todays candle in GOLD, is shaping up to be one ugly candle in the short term using the TSE as its metric. Also please note the resistance (The TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange is heavily weighted in Precious metals & other commodities... so IMHO that is more credible) 1 yr chart 3 month Please note that the reversal candle that I referred (shooting star) to should read as a Gravestone Doji --> where the open and close are at the low of the bar. One of three things will happen today: Gravestone Doji Interpretation: A top reversal signal. The longer the upper wick, the more bearish the signal. Shooting Star: A candlestick with a small body, long upper wick, and little or no lower wick. Interpretation: A bearish pattern during an uptrend. or possibly a doji 3 month Silver Interpretation: Dojis are usually components of many candlestick patterns. This candlestick assumes more importance the longer the verticle line. Can GOLD rally from here? Absolutely, my personal opinion on GOLD is the next stop to be taken out is the high from 2006 of $720

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