My comment: Interesting news item. Didn't think Jeb Bush could possibly occupy the White House.
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In US poll, it's about friends with money
David Nason, New York correspondent
February 26, 2007
ABOUT the only thing missing when Tom Vilsack cried poor and quit the US presidential race last week was the soundtrack from Abba's Money Money Money.
Aha-ahaaa
All the things I could do
If I had a little money
It's a rich man's world
Vilsack, the first significant Democrat candidate to declare for 2008, was always expected to have a funding struggle but few expected such a quick cave-in. The former Iowa governor's bid lasted just 86 days before hitting quicksand.
"It is money and only money that is the reason we are leaving," Vilsack said mournfully at his Friday press conference, but minder Josh Earnest explained it better.
"This is a nomination process on steroids," Earnest said. "It started earlier than anybody expected and it's requiring more money than ever before."
Most pundits agree that candidates will need $US20-30 million by April to have a chance for the nomination. When he quit, Vilsack had pledges for only $US3 million ($3.8 million).
More than anything else, money is what separates the so-called first-tier candidates from the second-tier hopefuls. But as last week's dust-up between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over the mega-dollars of Hollywood mogul David Geffen showed, money has also become part of the election mainstream, a public battleground in its own right.
Previously a strong Clinton supporter, Geffen jumped ship by holding a Los Angeles fundraiser for Obama that raised $US1.3 million. At the same time, the billionaire co-founder of Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks unloaded on the Clintons through Maureen Dowd's column in The New York Times, calling Bill "reckless" and Hillary "incredibly polarising" and unelectable.
To ensure he was heard, Geffen said it was "troubling" how easy the Clintons found it to tell lies.
Compelled to respond and spooked by Obama's continuing political momentum and the inroads he's made on fundraising, the Clinton camp decided to attack. They demanded the Illinois senator renounce Geffen and hand back the $US1.3 million.
Obama's office hit back by saying, accurately, that the Clintons never had a problem when Geffen was parking his swag in the Lincoln bedroom at the White House.
To what degree Geffen's switched loyalties are a jealousy-driven response to Bill Clinton now preferring the company and lodgings of playboy supermarket billionaire Ron Burkle when he's in Los Angeles is unclear, but the episode left both Hillary and Obama diminished - she by appearing heavy-handed; he by coming across as a smart alec and reneging on his promise to be a "different" kind of candidate.
It made winners of the other Democrat candidates but of those, only John Edwards can be considered 'first tier'. Two who were safe bets to raise the necessary cash - 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry and former vice-president Al Gore - have decided not to run.
Given that Obama's meteoric rise is sucking up so much money, the likelihood is that only one of the second-tier Democrats - either senator Joe Biden or New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson - will be able to survive into July-August when the campaign will go into overdrive.
The early start to hostilities has been triggered by so many states moving forward their primary races. By the end of February more than half will be done.
On the Republican side, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney all have the money to stay in the race until then, but a large pool of so far uncommitted funds awaits the GOP candidate to be anointed by the party's evangelical right wing.
All three of the GOP first-tier candidates present problems for the religious Right - McCain because he's never been forgiven for dismissing evangelical leaders such as Jerry Falwell as "agents of intolerance"; Giuliani because he's too liberal on guns, gays and abortion; and Romney because he's a Mormon.
Who gets the faith endorsement - and the money that goes with it - may well depend on the answer to the biggest question in US politics: what happens if President George W.Bush's surge in Iraq actually works and allows US troops to leave the country in victory instead of defeat?
If it does, Bush's popularity would climb and the evangelical Christians who backed him in 2000 and 2004 with such effect would be remobilised and ready to splurge their money.
The most profound impact would be on the Democrats. Every Democrat presidential candidate has condemned the war and called for the US involvement to end. It means a successful surge strategy would be political disaster on a grand scale.
In such a climate, it's not difficult to imagine the presidential aspirations of Jeb Bush being flushed out, raising the intriguing prospect of another Bush-Clinton contest for the White House.
Should it happen, and should Bush win, it would be interesting to see how history evaluates W's presidency. On face value, a scoresheet that reads victory in Iraq and a handover to little brother would be hard to argue with.
theaustralian.news.com.au |
