Uh Oh .... Cheeky, cheeky, cheeky, just when I was beginning to enjoy my Sunday :-)
Methinks some cold, hard math is in order............
If the bloke on ROB TV is right :
On an "expected" basis....
Expected Value per share = $20 P + $ 3 (1-P) = $3 + 17P
where P = probability ban is lifted in April
Then to be worse off from Friday's closing price : 17P + 3 < 14
or P < 64.7%
So, ignoring other issues such as the pain of a monetary loss, the effect on Canadian stocks* etc., the question is whether or not one believes the probability is greater than about 2/3rds that the ban will be overturned.
To be honest, I am going to adopt a wait and see attitude and try to get a better sense of whether the odds will turn better before the vote. Depending on how things are looking I might sell some shares. Of course Mr. Market will be giving us his opinion through the change in share price leading up to the vote.
So, it's not quite time to panic. Oh yes , did I mention I have over 10K LAM shares in my portfolio :- (0)
Cheers
Energy_Investor
PS Now I think about it, this changes the odds quite a bit since LAM is just a % of my portfolio. Screw it, I am going back to sleep.... either way I win :-) |
