The major houses and banks, RBC, CIBC, HSBC, etc produce regular
reports on the metals, listing existing production and that
coming on stream showing name of mine, start date, production, etc. Just look it up.
I have read many of these from beginning to end. For zinc metal
they often do not have a source to fill the demand. So they
state in summary that they assume such supply will be forthcoming
or the demand can not be satisfied. Price rationing of course
will balance the demand but they will not guess at a clearing price.
Often just use the present price for the next yr or so
then assume a decline.
When you subtract the mines being depleted and add the world
demand (assuming no worldwide collapse) there is a supply gap
which worsens for many yrs. But will of course eventually be filled.
Maybe China can get some fast production w/o env concern, I dunno as the info is not avail.
Many analysts including Coffins, Roulston, Kaiser, etc consider
Zn to have the best future price performance of the major metals.
But almost all do not expect price advances for these metals.
The trick is to find jrs which can be put into production profitably
while prices are still elevated, or just play producers for
a less leveraged position.
Some of us like MMG for the size, grade, country risk, in fease status, Amex listing,
and the fact that the oxide ore that they have can have
a production cost about 30% under the others, a major advantage.
But it ain't a mine yet so has plenty risk like the others. |
