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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST
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From: etchmeister3/1/2007 3:24:08 AM
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Listening to midquarter update a number of analysts seems to be carried away by 45nm.
Though Intel is about to launch 45nm quite frankly the revenue foundries receive from 65nm as of today is probably way less than 5% (and perhaps closer to 1% in case of TSMC).
Several questions about "the worst over"?
We are not in a downturn; a flatish capex is now being transformed into a "downturn" and everybody wants to know when bookings will start to increase from a very high level.
(Sometimes I think ..uck it and give 'em a downturn so we create some "sequential growth" while overall little changes).
Seems to be that traders are desperate for cyclical up and downs but overall it seems everybody - not only semis - got smarter by aligning supply to demand (in real time rather in anticipation).
Let's face it there are tons of improvement to reduce cycle time, better inventory management yadayadayada.
IC's are good example - though capex swings up and down the amplitude of the capex swings does not create and IC downturn though the various segments (like DRAM, NAND, logic etc.) behave differently and not necessarily in synch.
Obviously if the IC industry is capable to reduce the amplitude of cycle other industries should be able to do the same.
Maybe there is a "new economy" afterall rather following 7 fat years and 7 lean years.
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