The myth of the COBOL programmer shortage.
One of the clever, but misleading arguments bandied about by stock hypesters is that as the year 2000 approaches, programmer resources will get scarcer, forcing companies to buy dubious "automated code conversion" tools from companies like Matridigm.
First we take a look at the web site which is so often quoted and referred to by Y2K believers and hypists. The Peter de Jager Year 2000 web page: www.year2000.com
Here is an excerpt from their employment section:
"In 1997, 1998 most of IS will wake up and realize they need to increase staff by 30%, or some such number, over two years to complete the Year 2000 project. If we all require even a 10%-15% increase in skilled staff, supply cannot meet demand."
year2000.com
...and now a peek at the "huge" demand for COBOL Y2K "gurus"...on the same web site...
year2000.com
Next, we take a look at a web site that specializes in COBOL: www.cobol.com
Naturally, it has a Y2K section. Here's an interesting excerpt:
Citing the figures from Meta Group Inc., Mr. Knowles has a point. According to the Stamford, Conn. company, they state the average salary of a COBOL programmer in New York is $120,000, and a good project manager makes a whopping $780,000 per year. Meta Group also estimates that the costs for Y2K personnel will increase twenty percent per year.
cobol.com
...but on the same web site, we can't seem to find any help wanted ads offering these $780K jobs, or even $120K jobs. In fact, you'll be hard pressed to find a $70K job...
cobol.com |
