MILLENNIUM PHARMACEUTICALS (MLNM): VELCADE FORMULTIPLE MYELOMA
[Supposed to be Citi-analysis based on January IMS figures. From posting at investorvillage.com
Nov 06 Dec06 Jan07
3-Month Moving Ave. (in $000s) 19,147 18,721 19,087
Month-over-Month Growth -2.1% -2.2% 2.0%
MonthlyAudited Sales (in $000s)16,456 21,516 19,290
Month-over-Month Growth -9.5% 30.7% -10.3%
Average Weekly Sales 4,114 4,303 4,823
Week-over-Week Growth -9.5% 4.6% 12.1%
Year-over-Year Growth 15.6% 22.6% 29.6%
Source: IMS Health
* Velcade audited sales for the month of January were $19.3 million. The three-month moving average was $19.1 million, a 2.0% increase from the moving average during December.
* On a month-over-month basis in January, Velcade sales increased 12.1% from the weekly rate in December. Based on the current run rate, hospital sales data suggests that sales of Velcade are tracking at approximately $64 million in the first quarter of the year, ahead of our projection of $58 million.
* As a reminder, since publication of the Phase III APEX data at ASCO in June 2004, sales of Velcade reaccelerated after posting 6 flat months. However, this reacceleration has been less robust than originally expected. In our view, given the historically disappointing news flow from the pipeline, modest growth prospects for Velcade, and competition from Revlimid in multiple myeloma, we expect that shares will be pressured until Millennium’s pipeline begins to bare fruit. |
