@gold stocks -- trotsky, 15:50:44 03/05/07 Mon
still outperforming to the downside unfortunately - nevertheless, a playable bounce is probably close (unless the markets crash, with this caveat in mind one should probably apply tight stops).
@sub prime trouble -- trotsky, 12:50:39 03/05/07 Mon
as mentioned last week, this is something that simply won't go away. in fact, at the moment, even AA-rated mortgage paper is in technical default (!) according to markit:
AA-rated paper misses payment - pdf file
markit.com
and of course, by now everybody has heard the NEW bankruptcy rumors. look at the charts of NEW, NFI and LEND - what a massacre.
i have a feeling no-one has thought the ramifications through just yet. banks and brokers are trading heavy, but not nearly as badly as they should.
also, this sub-prime collapse is unadulterated bad news for consumer demand at the margin - imo broad-based economic weakness will result due to the belated tightening of credit standards this has brought about, and this will affect not only the US economy.
@gold shares -- trotsky, 11:02:39 03/05/07 Mon
looking like a short term buying opportunity here, imo. at the very least we should be within hailing distance of a playable bounce. buy what's strong (e.g., today GFI). |
