Hi Slob,
You have asked whether I am expecting a turnaround in "the near future."
Sorry to say, it isn't likely, at least of any variety that would make shareholders still holding on from early in the year very happy. Today's announcement that the company only expects *sales* of close to $ 6 million reportable for the third quarter is an indication of how far and how fast this company has lost its way.
There just isn't any effective marketing. Pauline Alker may well have predicted $ 500 million in sales by the Millenium (I was at the AEA Conference last year and actually heard her *say* it!), but NPIX isn't going to get anywhere near there with her at the helm. One would think that she would consider resigning given the company's performance. For long suffering shareholders, virtually any new person with industry experience would instantly have greater Wall Street credibility.
Anyway, there is no debt, a reasonable amount of cash, and Glen Penisten has worked himself out of troubled situations before (He was CofB at American Microsystems, long ago sold to Gould at what would prove to be top-tick in that company's history), and if he is able to effectively draw on his earlier experience, perhaps there is hope of building something new from here.
Obviously, the stock is going at least a little lower tomorrow based on this report, and with cash of approximately $2.50 - $ 3.00 per share and at least some reasonable fast ethernet technology, there is something here to work with. Nevertheless, it is up to the management to make this work, and one can only say that based on performance over the last few years there is little reason to be particularly bullish.
In a year or so we will know if there is enough here to "save," with gigabit ethernet a coming technology and enough cash to finance NPIX's entry into that market. Time will tell whether they can make it work. For the moment, the bare bones valuation of the stock makes it extremely unlikely that the shares will sink much further.
I wish I could be more optimistic, Slob. Let us have the discussion again in three-six months, and if Ms. Alker is gone and replaced with someone of greater capability, perhaps there will be reason to "speculate."
Please take note, Slob, not to invest, but to "speculate." |
