@sentiment alert -- trotsky, 10:34:55 03/08/07 Thu
incredibly, the Rydex pm fund had yet another outflow yesterday, of nearly $10m. - this brings the outflows over the past 3 days to about $32m., or about 18% of the fund's total assets.
this is an amazing degree of bearishness in the face of a strong rebound. apparently, everybody is totally convinced that we'll head back down again.
now, this doesn't mean that we WON'T head back down again, it just makes it a lot less likely (when everybody has already sold, few are left to sell). it also means that the rebound could possibly get more legs, as eventually, the cash flows will reverse.
note that this flight out of the Rydex gold fund over the past few days is quite unique. not even when we did actually go down did it ever happen at such blinding speed or involve such a big percentage of assets. it is properly described as a near-total capitulation.
the cumulative cash flow ratio is now back at its 4 year lows last visited in mid January.
back then, gold was trading $50 lower than today, while the fund's price was also lower, but only slightly so (presumably, NEM is a huge drag on it now).
in any event, i couldn't believe my eyes when i saw this - extremely unusual indeed. |
