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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (1994)10/2/1997 8:41:00 AM
From: Henry Niman   of 6136
 
<<On page 1, there is a graph titled "Viracept duration of response." It appears that the
number of patients failing drops off significantly with time:

at 12 weeks, 90-95% are responding,
at 24, just under 90,
at 36, maybe 87,
at 48, still over 85.

It is tempting (though scientifically iffy) to extrapolate from this. I might even come
down in the camp that says PI resistance is not likely to approach 100% in a patient's
lifetime. But I'll avoid drawing that conclusion.>>

Of course the definition of "responding" is useful and if patients are failing at a rate of 15% per year (or even 10% if the failure rate is slowing), it does take much of a calculation to see that it would only take 6-10 years to reach 100% (assuming the rate for the first year is applicable to subsequent years). Since most people like to think of their lifetime in years and not weeks, its rather difficult to see a "significant" fall-off using weekly time frames totaling less than one year.

The longest data so far is MRK's showing a 21% failure rate after just under two years (about 10% per year) while the worst is the UCSF study with a 53% failure rate after 1 1/2 years (about 30% per year).
Both of these suggest failure rates will approach 100% in 10 years or less.
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