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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARU.V Aurelian Resources Inc

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To: safeharbour who wrote (311)	3/11/2007 4:57:47 PM
From: BritNick	of 516

If they can some how oust Correa prior to the referendum it will bode well for all foreign investment. The 3 biggest challenges will be: 1. Getting the media on board, looks like that is happening. 2. Cause some dissent in the military and police. 3. Restoring the Congress by getting the 57 congressmen back in place. Number 2 seems to be the biggest challenge right now, Correa is still very popular with the people (70%) The OAS did not help the "oust Correa cause" yesterday as it supported the need for the referendum. It would appear to me that Correa will win this round and get them to the referendum stage, that is when it will get interesting. Once the Constituent assembly is in place expect major in-fighting by the various members and special interest groups. If Correa tries to impose his will on this group he will lose friends/support fast, that is when they may take another run at him. Ecuador power players have historically waited until a President is out of favour before they punt or impeach. Patience with the political process is not something the people have shown, if poverty remains high Correa's tenure may be short lived. How does this affect foreign investment and ARU? I believe that unless the government comes right out and clarifies its position with respect to mining we are stuck in this quagmire of uncertainty. Another possibility is that they make moves that positively affect mining and exploration, such as CTQ being allowed to move forward or DMM being granted the permits that they have applied for. ACX looks like a dead dog but you never know, if they see some positive progression it will bode well for all mining plays as they are cast as the bad guys in a big way.

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