If you want really accurate semi quantititive long range metal forecasts, like 5 years out, try NRCAN. National Research council of Canada. Sort of like the Style Council, but they really have nothing to do, so they just sit around and dream up stuff from throwing tarot cards, and arguing around the water cooler. Plus it's a government job so they get to ask the janitor who cannot get any other job as his degree in mineral economics is from Budapest.
They got moly dead right from 1997 even down to predicting the
Chinese would go out and back into the market.
nrcan.gc.ca
Zinc:
PRICE OUTLOOK
The price rally that started in the fourth quarter of 2004
continued throughout the year on strong demand and tight
supplies. Cash settlement prices on the London Metal
Exchange (LME) started trading in the US$1200/t price
range at the start of 2005, peaking at $1430/t by mid-
March, followed by a slow downward slide to $1216/t in
April. Prices resumed a strong upward climb through the
rest of the year as stocks declined, reaching their highest
level for the year on December 30 at $1915/t, the highest
level for zinc prices since the last peak in September 2000.
The average zinc price for 2005 reached US$1381.55/t, up
24% from $1047.83/t in 2004.
While consumer stocks remained relatively stable at about
112 000 t during the year, inventories on the LME
declined from just over 615 000 t to just under 340 000 t at
the end of the year. World zinc markets are expected to
remain in a significant deficit of about 300,000 t in 2006.
Prices will continue to reflect the shortfall in supply in the
market and are expected to average between US$3500 and
$4000/t in 2006.
nrcan.gc.ca
VMS deposits can be classified into sub-categories
depending on their mineralogy: copper-zinc, copper-zinclead
and Besshi-type. As found with SEDEX deposits,
VMS deposits are formed through the exhalation of
hydrothermal fluids on the sea floor. In the case of VMS,
the host rocks are submarine igneous rocks rather than sedimentary
rocks. The largest example of a VMS-type
deposit in Canada is the Kidd Creek copper-zinc mine near
Timmins, Ontario. Other examples include the Flin Flon
copper-zinc deposits in north-central Manitoba. Many of
these types of deposits can also contain significant quantities
of gold, such as those deposits in the Abitibi region of
northwestern Quebec. While the copper-zinc deposits are
found typically associated with greenstone (mafic) volcanic
host rocks such as basalts, the zinc-lead-copper
deposits are associated with more felsic to intermediate
volcanic rocks such as rhyolite and dacite. Examples of
these types of deposits include the mines in the Bathurst
region of New Brunswick. Skarn deposits are formed at
or near the contact between a typically carbonate-rich host
rock with an igneous intrusion. Variations in the type of
igneous intrusion result in variations in the mineralization
that follows. An example of a lead-zinc skarn is the Sa
Dena Hes deposit near Watson Lake, Yukon.
Metal Outlooks
ilzsg.org
marketresearch.com |
