Silver linings in war clouds
King Abdullah apparently convinced Ahmadinejad that a U.S. bombing campaign on Iran would not be limited to the nuclear sites that are dug deep underground. The Iranian was made to understand if Bush opts for an air campaign, Iran would become the target for hundreds of bombing sorties against key installations across the length and breadth of Iran. Not only would Iran be set back several years, but the entire region would most probably explode against all the countries that have sided with the United States.
While such a scenario might appeal to Ahmadinejad's vision of the Apocalypse Now, which his own Shiite strain anticipates will be the prelude to the return of the 12th Imam, or Mahdi, who will then lead a dominant Islam to a new age of peace and plenty, his clerical superiors do not look forward to being bombed back to the Stone Age. Nor does any rational Muslim look forward with equanimity to a regional religious war of Shiite Islam vs. Sunni Islam, in effect a war between Iran and the Arab world.
The compromise now being bruited among European diplomats who work the Iranian file would allow Iran to move to the tipping point of a nuclear weapons manufacturing capability -- but then refrain, under U.N. verification, from actually producing them.
In return, sanctions would be lifted, and the U.S. would agree to restore diplomatic relations with Iran, lift all sanctions and pledge non-aggression. This would be a page from the Libyan playbook when Col. Moammar Gadhafi agreed to turn over all the nuclear bomb-making equipment purchased from Pakistan's Dr. A. Q. Khan in return for normalization with the United States and Britain. But from here to there is still a long, arduous diplomatic journey strewn with booby traps and war drums calling for "bombs away" over Iran.
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