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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 393.24

+1.1%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: jimsioi who wrote (5547)	3/12/2007 10:07:44 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) of 29622

Hi Jims, Since the beginning of this gold stock bull, there have been 5 major rallies followed by 5 major corrections/consolidations. Below are the start dates and lengths of the rallies and the correction/consolidations that followed. rally 12/00 5 months consolidate 05/01 7 months - EW 1 sub 1/2 rally 12/01 6 months consolidate 06/02 9 months - EW 1 sub 3/4 rally 03/03 9 months consolidate 12/03 8 months - EW 1 sub 5, EW 2 sub a rally 08/04 4 months consolidate 12/04 5 months - EW 2 sub b, EW 2 sub c rally 05/05 12 months consolidate 05/06 10.5 months so far - - EW 3 sub 1, EW 3 sub 2 It makes sense that the last rally (05/05 12 months) was longer because in EW terms the preceding rally was part 2b of a 17 month 2a2b2c correction/consolidation. Based on history, it seems reasonable to expect that any correction/consolidation might last from 1 month less to 3 months more than the rally that preceded it. If that is true (a big "if"), then the next major rally would begin (final correction low achieved... not necessarily the lowest low) between April 1st and August 1st. Just thinking out loud. vt

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