// Also, Aleph is very mistaken in thinking that if AMD stock price is $10/sh, that an additional 200m shares can be sold at 10. Very likely, the mere fact of selling new shares will drop the stock price so that total market cap is constant - incl new shares. //
In reply to this :
My own idea is still the 200 P/E + 100-200 public offering.
Clearing LTDebt servicing costs will greatly ease pressure for AMD IMO.
If P/E buys in, then this would make the 100-200 public offering much more attractive for the new shares.
Imagine AMD eradicating 5 Bio$ in debt via the above in 1 day.
I myself would again become a buyer under the above conditions !
I actually posted my speculation in more detail ca. 1 week ago.
In short :
1- As of 31.12.06, 75% Insti holdings @ ca. 20$.
2- The ATI effect on the BS was already known to the Instis @ 31.12.06
3- incl. the 500mio. once-off charge
4- the Q1 result excl. the charge was maybe 150 mio$ less than expected
5- the stock-price has moved down 30% since 31.12.06
6- in the Q1 CC, Hector said "money is no problem"
7- ..and avoided the question about more shares being issued
The only thing that has changed since 31.12.06 is #4
( excluding all the rumours and Intel pricing announcements )
So are you saying that Ruiz and Rivet are either liars or fools ?
If you believe that, then you are being very naiive IMO !
My point was that as I expect Hector & Bob have already spoken to P/E Funds etc. before taking on ATI ( they obviously knew what the BS would look like after taking on ATI ) and my guess is that a deal has probably already been done.
To go even further, maybe the deal was discussd while AMD was at ca. 22$, with a view to selling shares to P/E much cheaper.
Hence the very long price-floor of 14$ .. which is already 35% dilution compared to the 20-22$ range !
I further went on to say that if say 200 mio. shares have "already" been sold ( but not yet signed, i.e. accumulated by 3rd. parties ready for the signiture-day P/E investment / handover of the 200 mio. shares ).
So supposing it was suddenly announced that some respectable WS name is buying 200 mio. new shares of AMD, and then AMD offering 100-200 mio. shares public, I think that most "new" buyes would not have a problem buying at 14$.
OK .. it's the very wildest of speculation, but something BIG has to happen!
I don't expect to be right .. but somewhere along those lines !
The only thing that does worry me is the Goodwill entry:
Goodwill 3,217,000
finance.yahoo.com
Quite large ! ... and does inflate the Asset side such as to nicely offset/hide the Total Liabilties !
The Basis for the above speculation is simply that I do not believe that Ruiz/Rivet are liars or fools !
PS:
OTOH .. if something similar to the above is not the case, then we'll see single digits by June latest IMO !
.. and PPS:
to all you AMD-bashers, I have been calling a "Sell" on AMD since 22$ ! |
