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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (224068)3/14/2007 12:27:24 AM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
It's never in equilibrium. It changes constantly

As are most dynamic systems. Equilibrium is a relative term. If one can observe the system state (or at least inputs & outputs if the state is not known) one can generally understand what is safe to call equilibrium for the sake of specific models, as well as compensate for the output dynamics induced by other input sources (such as solar induced CO2 production). Nobody says it is easy of course. That's why they mint lots of Phds.

Over the last thousand years, you had the medieval warm period, followed by the Little Ice Age, which started getting warmer again about 1750, and we've been in an overall warming trend since then. Now obviously those changes were not manmade.

They are not a problem either. The question here is if the industrial revolution forward & fossil fuel are having an effect. We can compute this input with pretty good accuracy, and we can measure current atmospheric CO2 levels with accuracy. The question is 1) will CO2 levels keep rising and 2) will this cause temps to rise. Hence the question is equivalent to asking if temps will rise as a result of some input of CO2 on the scale of what humans are known to be doing. It has nothing whatsoever to do with if other sources could cause warming as well (or CO2 as well).

Let me explain it another way that perhaps you can understand. Suppose your car has bad shocks. When you hit a bump in the road, the wheels shake violently afterwards. Now the best way to test for this is to stop the car, make sure it is at rest (equilibrium) then give it a sharp vertical push over a fender. If the shock is bad, the car will bounce several times with decaying amplitude. But it is still possible to deduce this while driving, even though the constant road adds additional motion factors which you must filter out. The ability to pull out the signal of interest from a background of clutter is what makes many electronic items (like cell phones) function.
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