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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Paul Senior who wrote (26254)3/14/2007 8:26:44 AM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) of 78666
 
Bulk Shipping. I suggest you take a look at THE ECONOMIST magazine March 3-9 edition. Article on page 71 titled "Container Ships - Maxing Out".

Basics -

Rates peaked 3rd qtr 2005. Causing a splurge in new orders and "all to predictably, these are about to be launched into a cycle turning down".

Freight rates down 8% from a year ago. 4,000 box carrying ship afloat today, but 1,300 on order. Tonnage up more because these ships are BIG. Half of existing fleet (tonnage) on order. Historical tonnage on order is 30%. But most of present fleet is modern, so % should be lower.

And they discuss the largeness of the new ships. Ships used to carry 5,000 containers, new ones carry 11,000. (A train carrying that load would be 44 miles long!)...

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