To All -
Using a simple method I've been able to make fairly accurate earnings
estimates the previous two qaurters relative to Wall St. consensus. I've posted them in the past, longer term followers of this thread should be able to vouch for me.
Consensus DKG actual
Q1 0.23 0.30 0.29
Q2 0.32 0.40 0.48
Based on the following:
Near Term Production Capacity
Final Test Bays: S.D. Japan Total
Plant Old New
1Q 97 15 9 4 28
2nd Q 97 15 9 8 32
end of July 97 15 16 8 39
end of Sept. 97 15* 32 10 57
*6 of the test bay in the old S.D. plant will be converted to ArF the nine others will be used for prototyping.
Final test cylce time is about 16 days/bay -
there are 92 days in Q3.
92/16 = 5.75 DUVs per bay for the Q working 7 days a week,
78.8/16 = 4.92 based on 6 days a week
65.7/16 = 4.11 based on 5 days a week.
Test Bays available for KrF production:
July 32
Aug 39
Sept 39
=========
Q3 Avg = 36.67 * 5.75 = 210.85 round off 210 based on 7 day a week
36.67 * 4.92 = 180.4 " " 180 6
36.67 * 4.11 = 150.71 " " 151 5
DUV* unit $ = product revenue
210 *$ 430,000 = $ 90,300,000
180* $ 430,000 = $ 77,400,000
151* $ 430,000 = $ 64,930,000
Net income has been an average 12.73% of total revenues in the trailing 12 month period. I1ve been using 12.5% in my estimates.
net income / share out = EPS
90,300,000 * .125 = 11,287,000 / 28,500,000 = 0.40 7 day/week
77,400,000 * .125 = 9,677,000 / 28,500,000 = 0.33 6 day/week
64,930,000 * .125 = 8,116,250 / 28,500,000 = 0.28 5 day/week
These estimate are on the high side, but I plugged in the #'s
and that's what came out.
Comments ?
Denis |
