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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (224086)3/14/2007 10:55:48 AM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Actually, it's not possible to deduce this unless I know from other sources of information whether the road I am on is smooth or full of potholes. Since normally I do know this, I can easily deduce that the shocks must be bad. But if I were suddenly forced to drive over an unknown back road in the dark in a strange car, it would be very hard to tell the difference between a very bad road and very bad shocks.

Absolutely untrue. Signal processing is very amazing. One is looking for characteristic responses. Part of your statement above has merit, where you try to obscure all inputs. You are getting part of it now. As long as we can observe the outputs (no problem with weather) and most of the inputs (again, not a problem with weather) we can with enough time of observation, build a very good model.

The arguing on climate modeling centers to a large degree on trying to extend our time of observation by using historical data. Otherwise, the only way to build up time is to sit and wait.

For that you need an established mechanism for turning 1) into 2). The hypothesis of greenhouse gas has some problems to overcome since during the first 30 post WWII years, when manmade C02 emissions were really climbing fast, global temperatures fell. They were talking about another Ice Age in the 1970s.

All very well known and understood. Read up on it.
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