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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: wsw1 who wrote (53454)3/15/2007 6:04:41 AM
From: hubris33  Read Replies (2) of 109007
 
Billy -

yes, TRE still is over 90% of my net worth and i have no reservations in keeping it that way...

Thanks for clarifying that you are essentially a one stock investor. I sure would not wish to have all of my eggs in one basket, or 90% in one basket! But hey, I'm an overly confident trader, fwiw.

I still do not like TRE from an investment stand point. The point is that the company is set up to be a Royalty income situation, similar to RGLD. Unfortunately the company has zero royalty income as of present.

The prospects of royalty income are not good for the next 12 months. In order for the company to generate royalty income it needs gold/nickel/diamond production from one of its properties. Best I can tell, production is still years out on any property.

In order to build a mine any TRE property needs to have a Feasibility Study completed and then a mine and mill constructed. That process usually takes years to complete and since the feasibility process has not started on any TRE property, production is still years out.

I am not convinced that investing in TRE at this time makes sense. IMHO it is a pure speculation play. It makes more sense to invest in an emerging producer that is being re-rated by the market or which is a take-over target. With the emerging producer one has two opportunities for the price to go higher.

Take a look at where an investment in emerging producer AZK would have you in the last 12 months versus a investment in TRE. It looks like a 60% difference in returns!



ichart.finance.yahoo.com

Or how about an investment in emerging producer MNEAF.ob? It looks like there is an 80% difference in return for investors of each, in the last 12 months!



ichart.finance.yahoo.com

Actually if one wants to speculate long-term, I suggest rolling some of that money into UXG. UXG has properties in politically safe Nevada, they already have 4 Million ounces of 43-101 compliant "gold in the ground." [If they add CGR.v they will have 5 Million ounces.] And better yet, UXG is run by former Gold Corp Chairman, Rob McEwen. Now McEwen is a proven gold finder and mine developer, he demonstrated that by taking a near bankrupt $50MM market cap company and turning it into a $2 Billion Market Cap powerhouse.

Good luck!

H3
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