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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Bonefish who wrote (80044)3/15/2007 3:05:20 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Thanks, now I see what he's driving at... and as usual I have quibbles at the very least.

His statement that "Prices are determined by the relative eagerness of the buyer versus the seller." is of course true but ignores the real causation behind rises and falls, which is of course relative rates of money creation by central and other banksters. "Liquidity" in my opinion is just another buzz word to cover up that few people understand what inflation is - at best.

I'm also less than sanguine about both the bogus 1974 XAU comment (it wasn't around until the early '80s) and the partial weasel word of "annualized" in this section of the piece:

"To put some historical context on this measure, since 1974, the Gold/XAU ratio has been greater than 5.0 about 15% of the time. When the ratio has been this high, the XAU has followed with annualized gains of 89.6%, on average"

My biggest reservation though is that I haven't done the analysis myself regarding XAU returns when taking the ISM and Purchasing Managers Index into account. One day Ill get around to obtaining the long term BGMI data and see what turns up when analyzing it with various economic indicators. At least then it will be a valid series, rather than some odd reconstruction of the XAU or even a typo.
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