stockalot said:
<<Bogle says quite pointedly he not only "does not know anyone who can consistently time the market but that he doesn't even know anyone who knows anyone who can time the market consistantly."
Think Bogle is to be believed or Brinker?>>
--I believe Bogle "does not know anyone who can consistently time the market...>>
I believe brinker, for about 25 years, has been TRYING to time the market, with mixed results.
He certainly has not been able to do it "consistently," but he has done it pretty well since around 1991.
Here, again, is what *I* believe about market timing:
Personally, I believe market timing is a tool that should be used sparingly, and to different degrees at different times.
For example, in 1999 it was pretty obvious to most people that we were in a bubble that was going to end badly. THAT was the correct time to do some market timing. I'm sure glad *I* did!
Right now, I don't think we're in a bubble, so I wouldn't make any drastic timing moves. If brinker said "sell everything" tomorrow, I would probably cut back about 10% on equities, just to play it safe. Maybe a little more, depending on other factors. But I certainly wouldn't "sell everything," because I know that no one (including brinker) is perfect.
The thing to do with people like brinker, Jimmy Rogers and other experts is to realize that they are ALL going to be wrong fairly often, and make your own final decisions based upon many factors. |
