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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana
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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1812)3/17/2007 8:42:16 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (2) of 6370
 
What the NDE 8k does not say is the disturbing trend:

The Q4 2006 Alt-A production has a 30-day delinquency of 10.13% (this needs to be compared to the total pool standing at 5.40%).
In Q3 the corresponding number was 8.40%. In Q1 when all was well the number was under 3%.

Compare that with NDEs own first lien loans (Conforming Loans):

In Q4 2006 the total stood at 2.52% essentially flat with the new production and also comparable to 2.62% a full year earlier (Q3 2005).

The relative development of Alt-A was indeed worse than subprime (it moved from 23.33 in Q3 2005 to 27.12 in Q4 2006).

After all the NDE Alt-A loans are worse than HELOCs (2.03%) and at par with Closed end Seconds (7.82%).

One more number is interesting:

Of all Alt-A loans only a fraction is serviced for the GSEs (Indymac says so: Only few Alt-A loans can be sold to a GSE).
Of 123B total Alt-A, only 22B are serviced for the GSEs.
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