I'm not sure how Cameco has come into this but I have talked to several of the engineers actually doing the work and they don't have big concerns. Of course given enough money almost anything is curable, but Cigar Lake is a fairly simple fix using variants of off the shelf technology,...ground freezing and more pumping power (if the ground is frozen above the shafts then water can't flow anymore if a little bit of ceiling falls down,...if the ceiling and walls are frozen it is also less likely that a collapse will occur). I pointed that out on your thread last weekend and Cameco came out with an NR this week confirming some of the things I talked about. The unknowns for the current remediation procedures were the ability of the concrete to set properly with strength after pumping concrete down the drillholes into the water in the tunnel to seal it off , and if the flooding caused significant damage to nearby infrastructure. Again the engineers are not overly concerned, but many groups heavily invested in other Uranium gambles used the biz news media to exaggerate the problems at Cigar Lake to further the Uranium market pump. That's what this market is all about,...it's heavily manipulated,...check with Jim Cramer:-[)
As far as companies operating in Zambia or DRC, it wasn't me telling you not to gamble there. Like anywhere there are hotspots you don't go, and calm spots you can go. As long as you respect the officials controlling the areas you want to go in, and pay the appropriate bribes, you can operate there.
Now on to Aru and Ecuador I have pointed out two things that ARU is facing now. One is many analysts with access to the news media (ROBtv) holding significant positions in the stock were predicting 10 million oz plus when the strike length was around 400 to 500 meters after the first few drillholes. Based on the fact the drill widths were not true widths, and the gold was contained mainly in steeply dipping high grade veins that comprised a small part of the total drillcore widths being reported (you could see that from the 2 meter section assays), and that the dip of the veins seemed to be oriented in a near parallel direction to the drill core angles (typical in epithermal systems), I suggested to many on one thread that true contained gold was likely a fraction of the claims at the time. Other more responsible analysts are now putting out pieces that agree with this possibility and temper the total oz predictions, and it should be noted that the geologists doing the drilling are in the conservative camp as well.
The second point I made is Ecuador is in a state of flux after the recent elections, not that they weren't before. There are two companies trying to build mines in Ecuador having considerable trouble with armed drunken banditos coming onto their properties, taking hostages and making demands. These were companies with considerable support locally, but the trouble was coming from neighboring towns who wanted a piece of the pie as well and/or were told that the mines would cause massive pollution in the area and destroy their health and livelihoods. We got to talk to the Corriente president in one of the short courses at the PDAC recently and he was quite candid at what happened to his company and similar things occurred to Ascendent.
Negotiations between the companies and the government are ongoing but no one can be expected to build a mine until the government guarantees they will police the problem,....you know about bribes? No one is likely to stop someone from exploring for and drilling off a good resource (this is in their best interests),...but it's when they think you are about to develop it that the banditos come out of the woodwork for a piece of your action.
If point two was not the case, this stock would already have been taken out. The fact a major hasn't jumped on it already is good evidence that the government is a major problem. The share price has reflected that.
ARU was my biggest successful gamble of the last few years. I had a significant position from a couple years back on a Claude Cormier reco while we waited for results from the initial drilling to the south of FDN. Claude and I may have made some public messages at that time that you can check out. When the so-so results came out I became a bagholder. Some bags are better than others. Although I'm no longer in ARU, I'm in several other Ecuadorian explorers/ resource developers because when and if the government comes to the table with the new deal there are several other stocks that I think have a greater potential to multiply to a greater degree than ARU. |
