This is a real sea change....
New Study Offers More Bad News For GOP
By Zachary A. Goldfarb
Special to The Washington Post
Friday, March 23, 2007; 5:46 PM
The midterm elections dispelled for the time being the notion that the Republican Party had established an enduring grip on power -- and now a new study sees some dark clouds over the future of the GOP.
The analysis of 20 years of polling data by the Pew Research Center for People and the Press says that half of the public identifies as a Democrat or leans that way. Just 35 percent align with the Republican Party. In 2002, the country was split, 43 percent affiliating with the Republicans and the same percentage with the Democrats.
At the same time, the study shows, Americans have adopted views on a range of issues that place them closer to the traditional positions advocated by the Democratic Party. The study revealed increased support for social welfare, growing concern about economic disparities and less interest in aggressive national security policies. The public also showed less interest in traditional social values.
The data offers new evidence in an ongoing debate among the politically active about the political views of the American electorate -- and which party is better positioned to dominate elections. After the 2004 presidential election, for example, top GOP figures asserted that they finally established an enduring Republican majority. The 2006 midterm elections -- in which Democrats seized control of Congress -- suggested that this assertion was a bit too sweeping.
The Pew study does not hold the final word in this debate, but it makes clear that the 2006 results were not just the result of momentary displeasure with the GOP among the electorate.
The study, which looks at political views since 1987, shows that the gap between people who identify as Democrats and identify as Republicans is larger than it has ever been. In 1993, 48 percent of people identified as or leaned toward the Democrats. In contrast, 39 percent identifed as or leaned toward the Republicans. That gap narrowed throughout the 1990s until there were even numbers of people affiliating with both parties in 2002. Republicans held an advantage only once -- shortly after the 1994 midterm elections in which the GOP took the House and Senate amid massive Democratic losses.
The study, however, cautions that while Republicans have declined in standing among the public, Democrats have not improved significantly. Approval ratings of the Democratic Party have remained at just above 50 percent. But the GOP has seen its approval ratings decline from 52 precent after the 2004 presidential election to 41 percent now.
The study suggests the war in Iraq -- which registers strong opposition in other studies -- has taken its toll on Americans' views of military strength. After the Sept. 11 attacks, 62 percent said they agreed with the view that "the best way to ensure peace is through military strength." Just 49 percent agree with that view today, while 47 percent disagree. That is the lowest amount of support shown for using military strength in the study's 20 year span.
On social values, the study reiterates well-publicized trends in recent years, including greater acceptance of homosexuality, less desire for women to play traditional roles in society and less interest in religion. It also indicated that support has increased for affirmative action. |
