Civil War Brewing
STRATEGY PAGE
March 26, 2007: The government is not happy with the way things are going. The UN refuses to back down on economic sanctions, or demands that Irans nuclear weapons program be shut down. Inside Iran, a majority of the population still opposes the government, and attempts to cajole or bully this majority into changing their mind, have not worked. The problem is that most Iranians are fed up with the "Islamic revolution," and want less religion and corruption, and more democracy, in their government.
Since the clerics running the government, as a dictatorship, could be prosecuted for corruption if they allowed free elections, there is no incentive to loosen up. In Iraq, most Shia Arabs, like most Iranians, have rejected the concept of a religious dictatorship. There is open warfare between pro and anti-Iranian Shia militias in southern Iraq.
But the most damaging development has been the capture/defection/kidnapping, by the Americans, of over a dozen Iranian intelligence officials in the last few weeks. Some of these guys are apparently talking, because more Iranian operations in Iraq are suddenly being discovered and shut down. The radicals who are into secret operations in Iraq, and elsewhere in the region, are allied with president Ahmadinejad, and other factions that believe democracy is un-Islamic. These are hard core Islamic militants, who have been held in check by more moderate (although more corrupt as well) clerics. That balance of power is falling apart.
Take the kidnapping of the British sailors, for example. The Iranian government does not have a commander-in-chief, but several big shots (and Ahmadinejad is not the biggest) who can order military or commando operations. The kidnapping of British naval personnel is apparently an attempt by the Ahmadinejad crowd to whip up some patriotic support for themselves, as part of battle with other factions in the government. The more moderate clerics don't want to keep escalating the shouting contest with the UN, or the terrorism support in Iraq. It's bad for business, and not very popular inside Iran. So far, all this has just been a shoving contest. That's because the Iranian Islamic conservatives know that if they start fighting among themselves, it could be all over for them. The majority of Iranians would love to see the Islamic conservatives kill each other off, and they may eventually get their wish. Radical movements tend to be unable to move in reverse. Eventually they escalate the rhetoric and violence to the point where they self-destruct, or are wiped out.
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