ICSG forecasts 25% global mine capacity increase by 2011
Source: BNamericas
metalsplace.com
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has projected global annual mine capacity to grow at an average rate of 4.6% per year in the 2006-11 period to reach 21.2Mt, a 25% increase from 2006.
Copper in concentrate capacity is expected to grow by 2.60Mt to 16.2Mt, an increase of 19% over 2006 at an average of 3.5% per year. SX-EW cathode production is expected to balloon by 49% over the five-year period to 4.95Mt, an 8.4%/y growth rate. South America and Africa will account for more than 2.5Mt of the mine capacity increase, ICSG said in a statement.
For 2011, world refinery capacity is forecasted to hit 24.4Mt, an 18% jump from 2006. Some 2.34Mt of the expansion will come from electrolytic refineries, a 14.1% increase to 18.9Mt at an average 2.7%/y growth rate.
The remaining 1.44Mt will come from SX-EW capacity, forecast to grow at 7.4%/y. China and Chile will be the main contributors to the total refinery capacity rise, ICSG reported.
Annual smelter capacity is projected to grow by an average of 2.6%/y to reach 18.8Mt in 2011, an increase of 2.28Mt or 13.8% from that in 2006.
Because of several Chinese project expansions and startups, the annual global smelter growth rate will average 3.4%/y during the first three years, exceeding the corresponding annual concentrate growth rate of 3.2%/y, the ICSG said. The situation will start to reverse in 2010 when concentrate capacity growth will exceed smelter capacity growth.
Price forecasts
Despite the predictions of increased production capacity and the official inauguration Monday of BHP Billiton's (NYSE: BHP) 200,000t/y SX-EW Spence mine in Chile, analysts with Barclays Capital have increased their copper price forecasts for the second quarter of 2007.
Barclays is now predicting the red metal will average US$6,600/t during Q2, or US$200/t more than its previous forecast, on the back of a strong rebound in China's refined copper imports and a steady decline in London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories, the analyst firm said in a report.
LME spot copper closed Monday at US$6,860/t, or US$3.112/lb, a new 2007 high. |
