A very worthwhile read.
I'm often thought that when people say --- as if they are CERTAIN about complicated future events --- that "if the US ever pulls it's troops out and ends it's occupation of Iraq, that ... will inevitably follow", (Usually some variation of 'the world will end'), I've often thought that the politically correct visions and dreams that they express say an awful lot more about their OWN psychology and world view then it does about the ACTUAL CHANCES for various developments to happen.
Oft times, the so-called 'conventional wisdom' ain't worth very much. :-)
One of the potential developments expressed in that CSM article:
I asked one of these friends what he thought would happen if US forces leave Iraq in the near future. He said there's a possibility this would concentrate the minds of his countrymen on the need to find a workable reconciliation. "But if the Americans stay, we can expect the situation to remain bad," he said.
Is at least as likely to actualize as any of these 'end of days' fever visions. :-)
It is *also* possible, I'd argue, that a contest (sustained, or otherwise) for political dominance between the Sunni bloc of Middle Eastern States and the Persians and other allied Shia, could play out in a way that provides strategic benefits to the West... and, in the end, also benefits the Middle East.
So, that leaves us with (I'd say), AT LEAST three broad possible future paths:
1) Civil War / regional conflict leading to benefits to the West, the region at large, and civilization in general in the long-run.
2) War and devastation (with or without the US's presence on the ground in the affected areas) leading to practically 'Apocalyptic' results.
3) The end of foreign occupation actually (as the article quotes) PROMOTING political discussions and an end to violence.
(Notice how the politically correct 'conventional wisdom' we hear all over the media and from official government organs only stresses the *one* possibility... that unless we STAY for some undefined (but presumably very long) period of time, and expend some HUGE amount of our national treasure and our energies --- pretty much keeping us all the while from being as capable of doing other things in other parts of the world, for the duration --- that the world as we know it will practically disappear into smoke, flame, and endless misery.)
Chances are pretty good, I'd argue, that it *won't*, and the odds are likely AT LEAST two-to-one AGAINST. (If not MUCH HIGHER. :-) |
