Peak oil: The end of the modeling phase
A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari
Paper presented at a lecture given at the Università di Firenze, Italy, March 8, 2007 (PDF)
Modeling for 'Peak Oil' began seriously in the mid-1990s as the question of worldwide oil production reaching a maximum became a matter of widespread concern in some petroleum circles and academic centers. Among a score of other models, the 'World Oil Production Capacity' [WOCAP] model was developed over the years 1997-2000 [1]. And, even in those early days, the model --- based on 'Ultimate Recoverable Reserves' [URR] of 1,900 billion barrels estimated by Dr. Colin Campbell --- did point towards a 'Peak' within the first decade of the 21st century.
2. The WOCAP model
Further design developments and dozens of simulations over the years 2001-2003 resulted in WOCAP's final 'Base Case' scenario that predicted a 'Peak' of 81-82 million barrels per day [mb/d] over the years 2006-2007...
...Then, in 2004, Prof. Renato Guseo of the University of Padova entered the world of 'Peak' modeling with his 'Generalized Bass Model' [GBM] based on the 'Diffusion Method' [2] and making use of the powerful 'Non-Linear Least Squares' algorithm. The major results obtained by the GBM were for a 'Peak Oil' in 2007 (see Figure 2) and a 2020
production of 55 mb/d.
...Now, two very different models --- WOCAP and GBM --- had arrived at the very same conclusion, and that could not be pure coincidence. To the contrary, it was a proof (if proof need be) that the 'Peak' was for either 2006 or 2007. In addition, the similar 2020 production level of some 55 mb/d not only confirmed the models' parallelism but also came to stand as the best prediction available presently worldwide for future oil output. Having seen the results of Prof. Guseo's GBM model, it became clear that the modeling phase of 'Peak Oil' had come to an abrupt close and that henceforward 'Peak Modeling'
should be shelved once and for all. Some experts still seem unconvinced as they continue to compare and weigh results generated by all types of available models --- as, for example, 'The Oil Drum' [3] and 'TrendLines' [4] websites.
...4. Conclusion
The similarity of the results obtained by two very different models --- the WOCAP and the GBM --- should help bring 'Peak Oil' modeling to a close, as according to these models the peak of global oil production has now been reached. Furthermore, the two models' similar forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast for the future production of the international oil industry.
(8 March 2007)http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/The%20End%20of%20Modelling/The%20End%20of%20The%20Modeling%20Phase.pdf |
