Sounds like we did a half-ass support job, and didn't have them finish off the Islamists. When will we ever learn?
lindybill@crushyourenemies.com
U.S. Fails to Act as Fighting Worsens in Somalia
COUNTERTERRORISM BLOG
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
The situation in Somalia has grown markedly worse over the past week as the Islamic Courts Union's (ICU) insurgency gains steam -- so bad, in fact, that the Christian Science Monitor claims that the Somalis "haven't seen fighting this intense since the overthrow of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991." The fighting has produced mass casualties, as 381 people were killed and 565 wounded over a recent four-day period. Some of the ICU's more sensational recent attacks include a March 30 downing of a helicopter that was bombing insurgents, a series of mortar attacks (one of which killed a Ugandan peacekeeper), and a bomb attack Monday that targeted a government car.
A congressional report on Somalia was released last week. The gist is that al-Qaeda's East African operations are intact, and they're out for revenge. After the ICU lost its hold on Somalia following the Ethiopian invasion, the group's donors started pumping more money into the country. Al-Qaeda's senior leadership is also clearly prioritizing Somalia, as virtually all the tapes they have released since early January mention Somalia in some way. I spoke with a senior U.S. military intelligence officer over the weekend who reports that a number of Yemeni tribes who would have previously sent jihadists to Iraq are now sending them to Somalia instead.
Eritrea continues to provide weapons and logistical support to the ICU, and possibly military advisors as well. While Eritrea provided advisors earlier, they may have been pulled out of the country because a number of them were killed during Ethiopia's invasion.
Tactically, the ICU is exercising a remarkable degree of restraint in its fighting and target selection. It is almost exclusively targeting transitional federal government (TFG) troops and police. Often radical Islamic groups will also kill "collaborators," but thus far the ICU hasn't done so. When the ICU left Mogadishu, it did so on fairly good terms with the clan elders. Obviously the ICU is attempted to keep this good will alive.
The military intelligence source said that time is not on the TFG's side. The TFG is unable to pay gunmen to fight for it, and likewise cannot afford normal government services. I warned in January that the TFG would have great trouble winning the peace in Somalia without U.S. aid, yet the State Department has continued to block funding despite the Pentagon's desire to provide large cash outlays.
This creates a terrible situation for the TFG. While the ICU has an energized base of support, the TFG's position is dependent on the willingness of Ethiopia and Uganda to support it. Ethiopian troops are still in the country in limited numbers, but as casualties mount their presence will become a significant political issue in Ethiopia. The military intelligence source reports that there are many parallels to Iraq, where the initial military campaign was fairly successful but the insurgency gained steam thereafter. However, he doesn't think the Somalia campaign will last as long as Iraq: the fighting will likely be over faster, and not with a happy ending. He expects a resort to the situation in Somalia prior to the Ethiopian invasion, where the ICU controlled the entire country. He doesn't see the political will for another U.S. offensive there.
The truly infuriating thing about the situation in Somalia is that after committing military resources to defeat the ICU, the U.S. has utterly failed to provide our ally, the TFG, with financial and political support. This shows that we have not learned the right lessons from past failures. The cost of our failures in Somalia will be heavy: U.S. prestige will be diminished, it will be harder to attract allies in the future, and Somali lives are being needlessly lost. counterterrorismblog.org |
