Did Iran Blink?
CAPTAIN ED
The Iranians apparently caught everyone by surprise when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unexpectedly 'pardoned' the 15 British sailors and Marines they captured in Iraq waters two weeks ago. The Times of London reports that the sudden concession by the mullahcracy springs from a victory of pragmatist factions over hardliners, and that the Iranians saw no benefit from the further isolation a prolonged battle over the detainees would bring:
"The extremists wanted to put the British on trial or at least hold them as a bargaining chip for the release of five Iranian officials arrested by US forces in Iraq in January who are still in custody.
The more moderate elements advised the opposite. Iran is already reeling from sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council and in all likelihood faces further measures this year if it is does not halt its controversial nuclear programme.
The British might not have been in a position to use force against Iran but they did demonstrate that they could muster powerful allies around the world willing to take up the cause of the captured British sailors and marines. Iran's economy is already weak, further action could damage the Government's power base."
The UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for an end to the crisis. A tougher worded statement came from the European Union. Key Middle East regional powers, like Turkey, Syria, Saudia Arabia and Iraq also took up the cause and bombarded Iranian leaders with calls to free the British.
Perhaps. I think this analysis overstates the positive effects of both the UN and EU statements. The UN only wound up deploring the situation; it was the weakest possible option open to the Security Council. Getting anything out of the Islamist-friendly Russians and Chinese might be considered a victory of sorts, but it's pretty thin gruel. The EU response was even more embarrassing, refusing to even allow Britain to boycott Iranian trade.
If one believes the Iranians blinked, that probably came from the significant amount of military assets the US began deploying in the Gulf over the last two weeks. The US conducted war games within sight of the Iranian military, a none-too-subtle reminder that America had the firepower to make life uncomfortable for the Iranians, even if they thought the UK did not. With many believing that George Bush wants a reason or even an excuse to go after the Iranian mullahcracy before he leaves office, the incident seemed too provocative by half, especially for more cautious Iranians.
All of this is predicated on the belief that Iran got nothing for its concession. If that's true, then Iran lost some mojo in this crisis, but somehow I don't see that as a possibility, given the political situation in the region. If Blair had the nerve to order an attack, he would have done so almost immediately. Instead, the Brits used the language of de-escalation and compromise, especially over the last few days, signaling that they were ready to bargain. Would Ahmadinejad have dropped the issue with a potential victory so close at hand? It seems highly unlikely.
I hope the Times of London has it right, but it looks like a rather desperate attempt at spin for the moment.
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