Latest from Steven Swink
Ride the Precious Metals Bull
Outlook (Apr 2, 2007): The theoretical path to an April - June low which I've been describing for the last year is described/illustrated most succinctly in the Weekly XAU chart. However, the trading range upper limit becomes weaker and weaker as time goes on. So there is weakening sideways/downside pressure from the intermediate term (Weekly) pattern, but opposing and increasing upward pressure from the long term (Monthly) trend. There is no way to be certain that we won't breakup and out of the trading range rather than plunging to my long-forecasted low.
The upshot is that we watch it like a hawk, and if we detect weakness or topping patterns (as in a several weeks ago) we might lighten up. Mayb sell 1/3 or de-margin yourself or something like that.
Also: it appears that the stocks which did well last cycle may not be the ones which do well this cycle, but the ones which did well in 2003 - GSS, maybe CDE, ANO, the SA golds and junk like that. When taking a new position (especially in some Cando junior), I usually start fairly small then set buy stops below at 5% intervals in increasing amounts.
Portfolio (cash 10%): Updated daily as they change. Ordered by position size.
TIE,VLO,FCX,MGAFF,CMC,ERS,BMD,AUY,GRZ,GSS,CUP,NTO,CRS,GGB,
GG,AEM,PGDP,GMO,NAK,BLEFF,MRB,CZICF,TRE,GOLD,NXG,EGO,TGB,
AUAYF,DPTR,AZK,RGLD,MYMNF,AUREF,DROOY,UXG,SU,FRO,SLW,EKX,
EVRRF,KBX,ECUXF. |
