I wouldn't say that WiMAX' plans to be used more 'WiFi like' has necessarily been placed on the back burner: There has always been the contention that WiMAX has been designed to be used as a cellular, managed network for wide/metro area applications. WiFi already fills the space of a system designed specifically for unlicensed spectrum and ad hoc deployment by end users. On the other hand, as pointed out in other posts, all 3.5G-4G systems are becoming IP/SIP core based and more adaptive and are being used for network extension and local data networking. But just as EV-DO and HSDPA fempto to pico cells may be used to provide data networking, that does not mean that these are specifically well suited compared to WiFi or that they can be used without consideration of subscription with the local service provider(s).
That brings up the question as to why someone out there is buying around 20 million 3G fempto cells when they could buy WiFi junk or multi-mode 3G+WiFi instead? Obviously because they are willing to pay for service that provides wide area coverage even though WiFi junk is almost free. I say "junk" just to point out that being cheapest and easily applied (viral deployment), does not mean this is everything the 'market' wants. WiFi is a major development and has greatly helped to open up the Pandora's box of changes we will see over the next several years and decades (only if I live long enough!). But WiFi has several limitations as well: spectrum, power, network contention.
It is more a question of timing to reach coverage and price points needed to compete. The 'market' wants to be connected reliably and everywhere possible for a competitive price and that takes wide area deployments and multi-mode. It is very false impression that the 'market' needs WBB to be free similar to WiFi. Cellular now sells over 1 billion handsets per year and those subscribes pay to be connected. WiFi is a success, a significant contributor being Intel's adoption into laptops: but the reality is that volumes still pale in comparison to mobile handsets. Pricing for WiMAX has everything to do with scale: most chip design companies are fabless or aligned with chip manufacturers. Their operations are relatively small, low capitalization operations. Like similar IC companies, they become money mills once they pass break-even because they have huge leverage. Others, like Intel, are motivated by sales of other products to create favorable pricing of chips.
4G evolution versions of WiMAX and LTE will be able to be applied very granularly and several operators say that they will be perfectly willing for users to deploy in-building/home and local networks as long as they are paying as subscribers to the broad network. If fempto-pico scale base remote routers & subscriber stations are available and these fit right into the wide area subscribed service as well as provide 100 Mbps-1 Gbps local area networking capability as called out for IMT-Advanced, then why not use it for 'viral deployment' similar to WiFi? I have also talked to service providers who intend to offer business and government organizations the ability to build out parts of the network using higher power base stations.. so long as in the wider areas these would cover are open to their other subscribers. In fact, they are aggressively marketing to government, business campuses and others, particularly those who own or have control over fiber optic infrastructure which can help feed the overall network... having the needed very high bandwidth network interconnects is a major fulcrum point for overall delivery of 4G... so operators will often be willing to negotiate for mutual access between wired/fiber and wireless 4G networks.
When wide area deployments roll out, prices come down as volumes ramp, and higher order MIMO-AAS and other capabilities provide higher bandwidth. lower power and scaled networking and mobility, we will see both WiMAX and LTE become 'multi-service platforms' that includes multi-spectrum, multi-mode, and multi-tiered deployments. The 'middle tier' 4G infrastructure will far exceed the 'hub and spoke' large-scale hub base station infrastructure deployments by 2020. Eventually Cisco will become a major player in WiMAX middle tier systems.. a topic Peter and I have discussed a couple years ago but is still just a part of the vision. Cicso is a partner to several of the companies involved in WiMAX and 4G.. but also a competitor: not much with 'WiMAX pure plays' but with the more highly integrated and converging cellular infrastructure guys. 4G is both cellular and wireless Ethernet... and is part of pushing smart networking to the edge of networks and infusing it with distributed data and multi-media and location based applications.
- Robert Syputa |
