Merrill on earnings prospects, for those who have any to report. They have something nice to say about Tysabri:
Mixed Earnings Expected
We expect mixed earnings for the biotechs. Amgen sales could be weak but are
unlikely to be more negative than consensus & ImClone sales could surprise to
the downside. We think Genzyme, Gilead & MGI Pharma are most likely to beat
estimates.
Amgen: We expect Aranesp and Epogen sales to begin showing weakness due
to negative safety data and reimbursement changes. But, only half the quarter
was impacted, which should prevent significant softness. More importantly, we do
not expect guidance to be reduced until Amgen gains more insight into the issues
and their impact on the markets, including potential further reimbursement
changes. We reduced EPS ests due to lower Epogen and Aranesp projections.
BiogenIDEC: Rituxan (reported by DNA) sales could be weaker than expected,
but the stock will likely be driven by Tysabri, which could again surprise to the
upside based on continued progress in moving MS patients through the TOUCH
process.
Genentech: Genentech provided guidance at its analyst day suggesting flat
Q/Q sales. We lowered our Herceptin and Rituxan sales but raised our Avastin
revenue estimates based on NDC data.
Genzyme: We expect potential revenue upside due to strength of the LSD
drugs from continued market growth and a foreign exchange benefit of 2%. In
addition, Renagel could surpass estimates according to NDC data.
Gilead: We expect upside to estimates based on strength in the HIV franchise,
particularly Truvada, and lower than expected spending.
ImClone: 1Q07 Erbitux sales are irrelevant but could be light. Revenues were
adversely impacted by the launch of Amgen’s Vectibix, which we believe is
unlikely to affect future Erbitux sales due to recent negative data for Vectibix and
recent positive data for Erbitux. We expect an update for the pancreatic cancer
study, which was due at the end of 1Q07.
MGI Pharma: Given the temporary impact of generic Zofran on the Aloxi
market, we expect the focus to be on trends and guidance as opposed to the
reported Aloxi number. However, we expect Aloxi sales to beat consensus of $45
MM and Dacogen sales to surpass estimates of $22 MM. |
