It would be funny, and great PR, to have individual consumers file suits all over the world. But, I doubt there is standing. Nevertheless, it would complicate NOK's position as it fights hundreds or thousands of suits and every day there is a press release of another suit filed.
BMO Capital has issed a new report on the status. Speculates that there has been considerable pressure on NOK from carriers and distributors probably requesting indemnificaiton and that is why NOK reversed its earlier position that it would not pay royaltiesa and merely accrue them. It further speculates that Qcom will take its time to decide whether to accept the payment, because it's not due until sometime during the September, 2007 quarter. BMO interprets the payment or promise of payment as an acknowledgement that NOK needs a license to ship wcdma products.
Regarding the arbitration, it sees this as not within the exiting arbitration and the time period to select an arbitrator as 45 to 60 days and the process to take a year for decision.
Further, NOK retains certain rights in older patents after the expiration of the cdma-wcdma license, which based on NOK statements would include: adaptive power control, soft handoff and the rake receiver.
BMO believex that there are still many patents that are essential to the functioning of WCDMA voice and data communications, especially all modes of HSPA broadband data communication.
BMO believes that it may be difficult for NOK to contune without a license for more than about 5 months (where this comes from I don't know). BMO speculates that Pacific Rim OEM and equipment suppliers who lag behind NOK in market share may very well use political leverage or lawsuits to prevent NOK from importing into those territories. In other words, Qcom may have some allies out there. Plus, NOK has an aggressive program of trademark licensing enforcement (fake batteries and accessories under NOK name, etc.) in the region and those enforcement actions could be jeopardized by its hypocritical stance vis a vis Qcom. Translation: NOK has other interests that are compromised by its position that it can sell product without a license. NOK is aggressively trying to monetize its IPR by licensing manufacturers and suppliers in the high-growth Pacific Rim; it can hardly call on them to pay royalties when it is not. Translation: the screw turns both ways; NOK can't aggressively negotiate anymore?
BMO concludes NOK has to resolve with Qcom within a 5-12 month time frame.
On another topic, ITC decision due May 8. Opines 5% chance that ITC will go with BRCM and have downstream injunction. 15% chance that an injunction against importation of chips programmed with the offending software, which would have limited impact on Qcom as folks would have to reprogram with a fix or institute a sleep mode. 80% chance affirm the ALJ. |
