Confessions of a Weak Hand.
After being long for too long, and being a cheerleader, and losing a lot of money, I bailed last week at 15. It's amazing how one's head clears after unloading this stock. I had been far too emotional about this holding, and I think that many on this board are guilty of the same. Tell-tale signs are seeing conspiracy everywhere (MM manipulation, CNBC bias, etc.) and rationalizing bad news (rebates to spur zip sales, "challenging" next quarter). When holding declining shares, we tend to rationalize that the "weak" are unloading, and we, the few, the proud, the "strong," are still holding. What a bunch of bunk. The smart money is out, and will get back in later -- at half the price. I am still very bullish on this stock long-term, but it is still a momentum stock, albeit all downhill. Why stand in front of a speeding locomotive? This is a "challenging" quarter, and this stock won't rise until that cloud is lifted. If I were KE, and I knew that things were going great guns, I would have gotten word out this week that everything was rosy. It isn't, and he can't. I think it is quite possible that earnings will actually shrink sequentially this quarter, and in such an environment the market won't pay more than 25 times trailing earnings, if even that. Ugly as it sounds, that means $7. At that time, I will buy back in with twice as many shares. If I am dead-wrong, well, then I can simply buy back in at $15 on the way up. Am I weak or smart? Either way, I can now sleep at night .... |
