Anatomy of Earning Plays + suggestions:
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October 7:PSON, ESGOF
October 9: sold COST,RXSD, bought DS October 50's, IRF,KEG,FFD,ANEN,SMFC
October 10:FBN (insider buying),DSTM, EFII,GP,MIKL,AFWY,VNTV,YELL
October 13: NVLS,DIGI,LCE,SLOT,TG,ACK(puts)
October 14: AFCI, TER,HRZ,LRCX*,LSCC*... MALL, NMSS, NB,
SECX, RB, VRC,SCI***
October 15: CUM, DMIC,GDT, HLX, MDCO,XPRSA, SCI, UCMP, PKD,HMAR,FTEN
You treat this list as any watch list... looking at 7 day,
20 day, 50 day moving averages... and intraday. Check the
Stochastics, RSI and CCI, DMI..The only difference is that
a typical "overbought" situation, 52 week highs, surge in
volume, and unusual increase in option call (i.e. AZO,)
can mean an earnings suprise on the way...
I usually start watching 3-4 days before earnings... Companies
I feel more comfortable with {(i.e. RDC, CDG, VRC, SLOT, MALL,
FFD, I would buy the calls a few days in advance) others like
UCMP, DMIC, LRCX, LSCC would be treated with more caution...
I would sell on a surge BEFORE earnings to be safe)}
SCI Systems
Technical : SCI is above its 7 day, 20 day, 50 day
movingaverages... the stochastics and RSI are
approaching the 70 range and going higher
TECHNICAL STOCK PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
1 Day Relative Performance ........... 99.8
1 Week Relative Performance .......... 99.6
3 Week Relative Performance .......... 116.5
6 Week Relative Performance .......... 118.9
18 Week Relative Performance ......... 148.5
26 Week Relative Performance ......... 195.2
1 Year Relative Performance .......... 173.2
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ZACKS Current Ratings:
Strong Buy (1) 6
Moderate Buy (2) 5
Hold (3) 4
Moderate Sell (4) 0
Strong Sell (5) 0
Mean Rating (1 to 5 scale) = 1.8
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Prosearch Criteria Report for SCI
ERG................................... 85.0
EPS Rank.............................. 92.0
Projected EPS Rank.................... 92.0
1 Year Earnings Growth Rate........... 33.0
3-Year Earnings Growth Rate........... 57.7
5-Year Earnings Growth Rate........... 45.3
# quarterly EPS increases - 5 yrs.... 16.0
# quarterly EPS increases - 10 yrs.... 21.0
Current FY Proj. EPS Growth........... 35.6
Next FY Proj. EPS Growth.............. 22.2
Annlzd. 5-Yr. Proj. EPS Growth........ 22.2
EPS % Chg. Last Qtr................... 14.6
Proj. EPS % Chg. Curr. Qtr............ 23.8
Proj. EPS % Chg. Next Qtr............. 16.3
5-Year Sales Growth Rate.............. 31.5
5-Year Cash Flow Growth Rate.......... 22.9
Return on Sales....................... 1.9
Return on Assets...................... 7.1
Return on Equity...................... 21.8
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Pro VectorVest Stock Analysis:
RV (Relative Value): SCI has an RV of 1.33. On a scale
of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 1.33 is excellent.
VALUE: SCI has a Value of $64.70 per share.
Value is the foundation of the VectorVest system. It is a
measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based
earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend
growth rate, and financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): SCI has an RT rating of 1.46.
On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 1.46 is excellent.
RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator.
It analyzes the direction, magnitude,and dynamics of a
stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects
and projects the short-term price performance of the stock.
Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is
expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the
trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should
the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial
turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price
low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above
1.00, the stock's Price is in an uptrend.
GRT (Growth Rate): SCI has a GRT of 21 % per year. This
is excellent. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate
in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every
stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is
up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is
down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease to
increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): SCI has a Buy recommendation.
REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest
parameters working together. These parameters are
designed to help investors buy safe,undervalued stocks
which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky,
overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): SCI has a P/E ratio of 20.25.
This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS.
P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): SCI has a GPE of 1.04.
This ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that SCI is
undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of
stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT)
to Price Earnings ratio (P/E).
A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater
than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a
muchbetter indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.33 for SCI is excellent.
SCI has about average safety with well above average upside
potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well above average, relatively consistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks.
The anatomy is just an example of what goes into a stock
before I list it as a potential "earnings positive
earnings surprise" Some have a little less stringent
criteria, and some even more...
I also do a number of SEPARATE "searches" for some of the
following criteria:
Stocks of very high % EPS growth this quarter from last quarter,
High Sales Growth,
Low Receivable Turnover,
Low debt/equity,
Strong Momentum,
High Gross Profit Margin
Low EPS,
Analysts upward revisions of estimates in last 2 weeks....
Relative performance of 90-100 or more... |
