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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (82988)	4/15/2007 3:09:57 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) of 206209

>>>Peak Soil: Why cellulosic ethanol, biofuels are unsustainable and a threat to America<<< Quote of the Article #1: "…Massive alcohol production from our farms is an immoral use of our soils since it rapidly promotes their wasting away. We must save these soils for an oil-less future" (Jackson 1980)." Quote of the article #2: "Fertilizer energy" is 28% of the energy used in agriculture (Heller, 2000). Fertilizer uses natural gas both as a feedstock and the source of energy to create the high temperatures and pressures necessary .... possible for the world’s population to grow from half a billion to 6.5 billion today.......become dependent on unstable foreign states......................Between 1995 and 2005 we increased our fertilizer imports by more than 148% for Anhydrous Ammonia, 93% for Urea (solid), and 349% of other nitrogen fertilizers (USDA ERS)." So there it is. I think that this article may have been biased, but it does seem very well documented. Frequent Pimentel quotes. Pimentel was hired by Jimmy Carter into the Dept of Energy in about '78 to save his presidency from Iran. He was to develop ethanol from corn. He would have loved to please his boss, but he said it couldn't be done. He is at Cornell - Ithaca, New York - surely a location with no stake in the corn business. Certainly one should be long natural gas. I have often stated my suspicion that ethanol will be a great short. Its a question of when. I want to study the science upside and down, but from what I have always suspected, the energy balance isn't there - at least for corn. It has ALWAYS been an economic loser - wasting precious capital/labor hours. The case for "Peak Soil" has me most interested. The "When" issue will be decided on politics. Several lobbying groups have begun to coalesce against it. It is one to watch. Too many people on the face of the planet??? I think so. Its pretty scary. Is the US doing itself in??? One wonders. Really wonders. I am beginning to think that Jim "Toilet Mouth" Kunstler is morphing from a lunatic into an Oracle of Delphi. The case for concentrating one's assets in Canadian natural gas, and the sand box grows stronger every day.

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