Pam, are these your comments or someone else's? Just wondering.
My apologies, I don't know how I missed the blogger's name and designation :-(
The details are provided below. They are not my views but very close to how I feel. Toshiba/Sandisk are sacrificing current margins for higher future margins and in the process, completely destroying and pushing behind the competitors.
The blog is written by Semiconductor Fabtech, Editor-in-Chief, Mark Osborne. He has been covering the semiconductor industry for over ten years. This area is intended to provide insight into topical stories of the time in a more informal manner.
If Hynix can effectively become a partner with Sandisk and, by extension, Toshiba, then all the better, IMO. I hope they are content with being a strong second tier player in NAND. If they try to beat Sandisk/Toshiba, they will likely fail due to lack of IP and their dual focus on NAND and DRAM. But they could conceivably make everyone else miserable while they are trying. I wish I knew something about what royalties they will be paying. Guess we'll have to wait for the next few CCs to see how it breaks out.
Hynix does not have sufficient resources to compete right now and they should be glad to partner with Sandisk. Sandisk is hedging their future very well. Hynix has too much 200mm capacity and it will take B's of $'s and a long time in semicon business to replace the legacy capacity. Toshiba/Sandisk/Samsung are the best funded but in some sense Samsung is also carrying a lot of dead weight with them, as they also have a lot of 200mm capacity and the ratio of 300mm capacity to total capacity is unlikely going to change that cheaply and/or quickly and that makes them less competitive relative to leaders and of course, the IP penalty they have to bear. My sense is Toshiba/Sandisk will lead with highest market share (E40-45%) followed closely by Samsung and about 20-25% will be distributed amongst Hynix, IMFT, and others.
My understanding is Hynix has been forgiven for past dues but will incur L7R starting 2Q07 and beyond for SLC (to Toshiba) and for MLC (to Sandisk) and of course x4 whenever that happens. But, I doubt the exact terms would ever be disclosed by Sandisk and/or Hynix. |
